Heracles vs Helmond Sport – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Heracles (81%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Heracles face Helmond Sport.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Asito Stadium plays host to Heracles versus Helmond Sport in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Friday 22 January 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Heracles have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Asito Stadium, Heracles have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Helmond Sport's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Helmond Sport have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Heracles's favour (2.30 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Heracles lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Heracles half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Helmond Sport half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 54% versus Helmond Sport 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Heracles 71% | Helmond Sport 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 3.36 xG and Helmond Sport 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 1.325 / defence 0.737 | Helmond Sport attack 0.924 / defence 1.389. League average goals — home 1.827 / away 1.580. Heracles carry an above-average attack strength of 1.325 — their λ of 3.36 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Helmond Sport bring a strong defensive rating of 1.389 — this is suppressing Heracles's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Heracles's defence rating of 0.737 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 13 Heracles games / 51 Helmond Sport games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 81% | Draw 11% | Helmond Sport 8%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 1.23 | Draw 9.09 | Helmond Sport 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Heracles (81%) — a 73pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 4.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (3.36 / 1.08) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Heracles as the most likely outcome at 81% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.44 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 82% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Heracles 40% | Helmond Sport 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Asito Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 22 Jan 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 81% | Draw 11% | Helmond Sport 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% | BTTS 64% | xG Heracles 3.36 / Helmond Sport 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 1.325 / def 0.737 | Helmond Sport attack 0.924 / def 1.389 | league avg home 1.827 / away 1.580 • Poisson stance: Heracles (81%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.36
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Helmond Sport xG
64%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Helmond Sport kick off?
Heracles vs Helmond Sport is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 22 January 2027 at Asito Stadium.
Where is Heracles vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at Asito Stadium.
What competition is Heracles vs Helmond Sport part of?
Heracles vs Helmond Sport is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 81% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 8% chance, and a 11% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Heracles and Helmond Sport will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Helmond Sport?
Record (3 meetings): Heracles 2W | Draws 1 | Helmond Sport 0W.
What form are Heracles and Helmond Sport in?
Heracles (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Helmond Sport (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Heracles's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against Helmond Sport's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.36. Flip it around — Helmond Sport's attack (0.92x) against Heracles's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 13/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-1, at 8.1%. Close behind: 3-0 (7.5%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
81%
1.24
11%
8.86
8%
12.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
7.5%
Home win
2 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.36
Heracles xG
Total xG
4.44
1.08
Helmond Sport xG
1.24
81%
Home win
8.86
11%
Draw
12.24
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
65%
Over 3.5
1.54
35%
Under 3.5
2.86
46%
Over 4.5
2.17
54%
Under 4.5
1.85
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
3%
28.85
Win to Nil
27%
3.64
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are Heracles and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 3.36 expected goals for Heracles and 1.08 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 4.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Helmond Sport?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 81%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Heracles come into this having played 48 games, going 16W 6D 26L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Helmond Sport sit at 0.98 PPG from 48 outings (12W 11D 25L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Helmond Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Heracles against 0.98 for Helmond Sport. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Heracles's home form reads 11W 3D 9L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Heracles are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Helmond Sport have taken 0.39 points per game from 23 outings (2W 3D 18L). That's a step down from their 0.98 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Helmond Sport's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Heracles come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Heracles are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 1.31 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Helmond Sport in 62%.
Last 48 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
Helmond Sport
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 16W 6D 26L in their last 48 games (1.12 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 12W 11D 25L in their last 48 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Helmond Sport away?
Heracles's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.57 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 0.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 2 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Heracles
1
Draws
0
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Helmond Sport?
From 3 meetings on record, Heracles have won 2, Helmond Sport have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Helmond Sport last play each other?
They last met on 2 October 2026, when Helmond Sport 2-2 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Helmond Sport?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 48%, Helmond Sport 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Heracles and 56% for Helmond Sport. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles have failed to score in 30% of games; Helmond Sport in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Helmond Sport?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Heracles's recent matches and 48% of Helmond Sport's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Heracles vs Helmond Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Heracles's matches and 56% of Helmond Sport's.
Do Heracles and Helmond Sport tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Helmond Sport in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
More Dutch football predictions →