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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Helmond Sport and Willem II share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Helmond Sport and Willem II finished level at 2-2 at GS Staalwerken Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 1.84 xG and Willem II 1.61 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 0.98 / defence 1.20 against Willem II attack 0.89 / defence 1.07, drawn from 58/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 44% | Draw 22% | Willem II 34%, with Helmond Sport to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 64%, Willem II 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Helmond Sport's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Willem II's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Helmond Sport 1.19 PPG, Willem II 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights