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Roda cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Helmond Sport.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Roda beat Helmond Sport 1-3 at GS Staalwerken Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 1.82 xG and Roda 1.26 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Helmond Sport fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Roda outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 0.95 / defence 1.07 against Roda attack 0.99 / defence 1.05, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 51% | Draw 23% | Roda 27%, with Helmond Sport to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Roda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 63%, Roda 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Helmond Sport's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Roda's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Helmond Sport 1.21 PPG, Roda 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Roda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights