🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Helmond Sport edge out Jong Utrecht 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Helmond Sport beat Jong Utrecht 2-1 at GS Staalwerken Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 1.99 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.04 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 0.95 / defence 1.06 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.79 / defence 1.23, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 60% | Draw 21% | Jong Utrecht 19%, with Helmond Sport to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 60%, Jong Utrecht 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Helmond Sport's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Jong Utrecht's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Helmond Sport arrived the stronger side — 1.16 PPG against 0.70. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights