Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helmond Sport at 67%, yet in-form FC Volendam provide a compelling counter-argument — this Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
GS Staalwerken Stadion plays host to Helmond Sport versus FC Volendam in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Friday 6 November 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Helmond Sport have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Helmond Sport have posted 3W 5D 2L at GS Staalwerken Stadion — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Helmond Sport are significantly better at GS Staalwerken Stadion than their overall form suggests.
FC Volendam (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, FC Volendam are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Helmond Sport register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, FC Volendam in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
FC Volendam hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2025, ended 1–3 with FC Volendam winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. FC Volendam have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Helmond Sport goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
FC Volendam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helmond Sport 57% versus FC Volendam 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 55% | FC Volendam 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 2.60 xG and FC Volendam 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 0.960 / defence 0.997 | FC Volendam attack 0.867 / defence 1.438. League average goals — home 1.884 / away 1.433. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.438 — this is suppressing Helmond Sport's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Helmond Sport games / 10 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 67% | Draw 17% | FC Volendam 16%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 1.49 | Draw 5.88 | FC Volendam 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Helmond Sport (67%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.84. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.84 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.60 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Helmond Sport at 67% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Volendam (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results.
Poisson projects 3.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Helmond Sport 70% | FC Volendam 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: GS Staalwerken Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 6 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 67% | Draw 17% | FC Volendam 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 66% | xG Helmond Sport 2.60 / FC Volendam 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 0.960 / def 0.997 | FC Volendam attack 0.867 / def 1.438 | league avg home 1.884 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Helmond Sport (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.60
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.24
FC Volendam xG
66%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam kick off?
Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 6 November 2026 at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
Where is Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam part of?
Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 67% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 16% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Helmond Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Helmond Sport and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and FC Volendam?
Record (4 meetings): Helmond Sport 0W | Draws 1 | FC Volendam 3W.
What form are Helmond Sport and FC Volendam in?
Helmond Sport (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. FC Volendam (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Helmond Sport's attack at 0.96x the league average against FC Volendam's defence at 1.44x — combine the two and it projects 2.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Volendam's attack (0.87x) against Helmond Sport's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 49/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.8%), 3-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Helmond Sport Win
67%
1.50
17%
5.84
16%
6.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
2 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.60
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
3.84
1.24
FC Volendam xG
1.50
67%
Home win
5.84
17%
Draw
6.15
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
7%
13.48
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
1%
82.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 2.60 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 1.24 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Helmond Sport come into this having played 47 games, going 12W 11D 24L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Helmond Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Volendam sit at 1.09 PPG from 47 outings (14W 9D 24L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Helmond Sport against 1.09 for FC Volendam. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Helmond Sport's home form reads 10W 8D 6L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Helmond Sport are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Volendam have taken 0.54 points per game from 24 outings (3W 4D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Volendam's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Helmond Sport come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Helmond Sport are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.30 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helmond Sport and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 12W 11D 24L in their last 47 games (1.00 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 14W 9D 24L in their last 47 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helmond Sport at home or FC Volendam away?
Helmond Sport's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helmond Sport at home: 1.58 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
FC Volendam go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Volendam won 4-1 on 25 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Helmond Sport have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Helmond Sport
1
Draws
3
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and FC Volendam?
From 4 meetings on record, Helmond Sport have won 0, FC Volendam have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2025, when FC Volendam 3-1 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between Helmond Sport and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helmond Sport 71%, FC Volendam 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Helmond Sport) and 54% (FC Volendam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helmond Sport play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Helmond Sport's games and 50% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Helmond Sport's matches and 54% of FC Volendam's.
Do Helmond Sport and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Helmond Sport have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.