🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Helmond Sport and FC OSS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Helmond Sport and FC OSS finished level at 1-1 at GS Staalwerken Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 1.45 xG and FC OSS 1.10 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 0.95 / defence 1.05 against FC OSS attack 0.72 / defence 0.91, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 45% | Draw 28% | FC OSS 28%, with Helmond Sport to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 64%, FC OSS 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Helmond Sport's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

FC OSS's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Helmond Sport 1.16 PPG, FC OSS 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights