Helmond Sport 3-4 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Helmond Sport at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
GS Staalwerken Stadion plays host to Helmond Sport versus FC Eindhoven in Eerste Divisie (matchday 16). Kick-off: Friday 22 November 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
Helmond Sport's record over their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Helmond Sport's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
FC Eindhoven (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
FC Eindhoven away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Helmond Sport's favour (1.90 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Helmond Sport edge it 3 wins to 2, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 May 2024, ended Helmond Sport 2–0 FC Eindhoven — a Helmond Sport win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Helmond Sport half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
FC Eindhoven half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helmond Sport 60% versus FC Eindhoven 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 58% | FC Eindhoven 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Helmond Sport surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while FC Eindhoven have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 1.45 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 0.899 / defence 0.890 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.934 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.389. Data: built from Helmond Sport's last 52 games and FC Eindhoven's last 53.
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 43% | Draw 27% | FC Eindhoven 30%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 2.31 | Draw 3.68 | FC Eindhoven 3.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Helmond Sport at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Helmond Sport if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Helmond Sport 50% (last 10 home games) | FC Eindhoven 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 16 | Venue: GS Staalwerken Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 22 November 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 43% | Draw 27% | FC Eindhoven 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Helmond Sport 1.45 / FC Eindhoven 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 0.899 / def 0.890 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.934 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Helmond Sport (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.15
FC Eindhoven xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven FAQs
What time does Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 22 November 2024 at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What was the final score in Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven?
Helmond Sport 3 - 4 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 16) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 43% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Helmond Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Helmond Sport and FC Eindhoven will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Helmond Sport's attack at 0.90x the league average against FC Eindhoven's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Eindhoven's attack (0.93x) against Helmond Sport's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from Helmond Sport's last 52 games and FC Eindhoven's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.1%), 0-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helmond Sport Win
43%
2.31
27%
3.68
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
2.60
1.15
FC Eindhoven xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
14%
7.33
7%
14.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.4 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 1.15 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Helmond Sport's recent record stands at 22W 12D 18L from 52 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five.
FC Eindhoven, meanwhile, have gone 13W 19D 20L across 52 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Helmond Sport against 1.12 for FC Eindhoven. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Helmond Sport have managed 13W 7D 6L from their last 26 home games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Eindhoven's away record stands at 7W 9D 10L across their last 26 away games, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Helmond Sport come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Helmond Sport are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.13 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
Helmond Sport (Home) vs FC Eindhoven (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Helmond Sport
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven Form FAQs
What form are Helmond Sport and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 22W 12D 18L in their last 52 games (1.50 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 13W 19D 20L in their last 52 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helmond Sport at home or FC Eindhoven away?
Helmond Sport's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helmond Sport at home: 1.77 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to March 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 30 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Helmond Sport have gone 3W 0D 3L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Helmond Sport
1
Draws
4
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and FC Eindhoven?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Helmond Sport have won 5, FC Eindhoven have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 October 2026: Helmond Sport 3-2 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between Helmond Sport and FC Eindhoven?
Helmond Sport have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helmond Sport 65%, FC Eindhoven 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Helmond Sport) and 54% (FC Eindhoven).
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Helmond Sport and FC Eindhoven matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Helmond Sport's games and 54% of FC Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Helmond Sport and FC Eindhoven matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Helmond Sport's recent games and 54% of FC Eindhoven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helmond Sport and FC Eindhoven matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Helmond Sport's recent matches and 85% of FC Eindhoven's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Eindhoven defy the odds to beat Helmond Sport 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat Helmond Sport 3-4 at GS Staalwerken Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 1.45 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.15 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Helmond Sport beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Eindhoven outscored their 1.15 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 0.90 / defence 0.89 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.93 / defence 1.07, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 43% | Draw 27% | FC Eindhoven 30%, with Helmond Sport to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual FC Eindhoven win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 58%, FC Eindhoven 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helmond Sport's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helmond Sport 1.50 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Eindhoven win broke the near-deadlock. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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