Den Bosch 0-3 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs Excelsior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Excelsior travel to Stadion De Vliert to take on Den Bosch. The game is scheduled for Friday 22 November 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Den Bosch have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion De Vliert, Den Bosch have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Excelsior — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Den Bosch 1.80 PPG, Excelsior 2.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Den Bosch register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Excelsior in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Den Bosch have won 0, Excelsior 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2022, ended 0–4 with Excelsior winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Den Bosch in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Excelsior in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 50% versus Excelsior 65%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Den Bosch 56% | Excelsior 79%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.86 xG and Excelsior 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 1.225 / defence 0.884 | Excelsior attack 1.078 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.389. Data: 52 Den Bosch games / 14 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 50% | Draw 24% | Excelsior 27%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Excelsior 3.70. Den Bosch hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Den Bosch are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Den Bosch offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 60% | Excelsior 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Excelsior | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 22 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 50% | Draw 24% | Excelsior 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Den Bosch 1.86 / Excelsior 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 1.225 / def 0.884 | Excelsior attack 1.078 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (50%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Excelsior xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Excelsior kick off?
Den Bosch vs Excelsior kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 22 November 2024 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Excelsior?
Den Bosch 0 - 3 Excelsior.
Where is Den Bosch vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Excelsior part of?
Den Bosch vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 50% chance of winning, Excelsior a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Den Bosch and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Excelsior?
Record (2 meetings): Den Bosch 0W | Draws 0 | Excelsior 2W.
What form are Den Bosch and Excelsior in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Excelsior (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Den Bosch vs Excelsior?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Den Bosch's attack rating (1.23) and Excelsior's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Excelsior's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
50%
2.02
24%
4.25
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.19
1.32
Excelsior xG
2.02
50%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
16%
6.44
Win to Nil
13%
7.57
4%
23.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.2 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.32 for Excelsior, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Excelsior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Den Bosch come into this having played 52 games, going 15W 13D 24L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Excelsior sit at 1.29 PPG from 52 outings (18W 13D 21L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Den Bosch on 1.12 PPG, Excelsior on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Den Bosch's home form reads 7W 9D 10L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Excelsior have taken 0.92 points per game from 26 outings (6W 6D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Den Bosch are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 1.87 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior in 65%.
Last 52 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
Excelsior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Excelsior in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 15W 13D 24L in their last 52 games (1.12 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 18W 13D 21L in their last 52 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Excelsior away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.15 PPG; Excelsior away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Excelsior have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2021, when Excelsior won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting Excelsior specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Den Bosch
0
Draws
4
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Excelsior?
From 4 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 0, Excelsior have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2025, when Excelsior 3-1 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Excelsior?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Den Bosch at 62%, Excelsior at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Den Bosch and 88% for Excelsior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 65% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Excelsior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Den Bosch's games and 69% of Excelsior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Den Bosch's matches and 88% of Excelsior's.
Do Den Bosch and Excelsior tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Excelsior run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat Den Bosch 0-3 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 16, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.86 xG and Excelsior 1.32 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Den Bosch fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Excelsior outscored their 1.32 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 1.23 / defence 0.88 against Excelsior attack 1.08 / defence 1.01, drawn from 52/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 50% | Draw 24% | Excelsior 27%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Excelsior win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 56%, Excelsior 79%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Excelsior's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.12 PPG, Excelsior 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Excelsior win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Excelsior (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.