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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Helmond Sport and Cambuur share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Helmond Sport and Cambuur finished level at 1-1 at GS Staalwerken Stadion, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 1.65 xG and Cambuur 1.41 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 1.02 / defence 0.96 against Cambuur attack 1.18 / defence 0.97, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 43% | Draw 24% | Cambuur 33%, with Helmond Sport to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 62%, Cambuur 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Helmond Sport's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Cambuur's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Helmond Sport 1.33 PPG, Cambuur 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights