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Prediction vindicated as Willem II edge out FC Volendam 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Willem II beat FC Volendam 1-2 at Kras Stadion, Final, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.36 xG and Willem II 1.67 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.03 / defence 1.00 against Willem II attack 1.18 / defence 0.81, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 31% | Draw 24% | Willem II 45%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 77%, Willem II 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Volendam's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Willem II's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Volendam 2.18 PPG, Willem II 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.63 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights