FC Volendam vs Waalwijk – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Volendam vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Volendam host Waalwijk at Kras Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 5 March 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC Volendam have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Kras Stadion, FC Volendam have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waalwijk stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Waalwijk have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Waalwijk have posted 3W 6D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Volendam at 1.20 PPG versus Waalwijk's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Volendam register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Waalwijk in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for FC Volendam, 2 for Waalwijk and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2024, ended 3–2 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Volendam in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Waalwijk in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 60% and Waalwijk 81% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 63% | Waalwijk 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.78 xG and Waalwijk 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.257 / defence 0.809 | Waalwijk attack 0.963 / defence 0.732. League average goals — home 1.933 / away 1.580. FC Volendam carry an above-average attack strength of 1.257 — their λ of 1.78 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Waalwijk's defence strength of 0.732 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 7 FC Volendam games / 45 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 50% | Draw 23% | Waalwijk 26%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Waalwijk 3.85. FC Volendam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Volendam are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Volendam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 60% | Waalwijk 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 5 Mar 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 50% | Draw 23% | Waalwijk 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG FC Volendam 1.78 / Waalwijk 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.257 / def 0.809 | Waalwijk attack 0.963 / def 0.732 | league avg home 1.933 / away 1.580 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Waalwijk xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Waalwijk kick off?
FC Volendam vs Waalwijk is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 5 March 2027 at Kras Stadion.
Where is FC Volendam vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Waalwijk part of?
FC Volendam vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 50% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both FC Volendam and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Waalwijk?
Record (4 meetings): FC Volendam 2W | Draws 0 | Waalwijk 2W.
What form are FC Volendam and Waalwijk in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC Volendam's attack at 1.26x the league average against Waalwijk's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
50%
1.99
23%
4.29
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.01
1.23
Waalwijk xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
17%
5.91
Win to Nil
15%
6.82
4%
22.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.8 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.23 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, FC Volendam have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 12W 8D 23L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Waalwijk's form line: 17W 15D 11L from 43 games, 1.53 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Waalwijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Waalwijk are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Volendam.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC Volendam have posted 1.52 PPG from 21 outings (9W 5D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.02 PPG overall — FC Volendam are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 7W 10D 4L from 21 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
FC Volendam are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.98 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Waalwijk in 81%.
Last 43 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Early Season
Waalwijk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 12W 8D 23L in their last 43 games (1.02 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 17W 15D 11L in their last 43 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Waalwijk away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.52 PPG; Waalwijk away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Volendam and Waalwijk runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 May 2023, when Waalwijk won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Volendam's record when hosting Waalwijk specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC Volendam
0
Draws
2
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Waalwijk?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 2, Waalwijk have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2024, when FC Volendam 3-2 Waalwijk.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Volendam at 71%, Waalwijk at 81%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for FC Volendam and 62% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of FC Volendam's games and 81% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FC Volendam's matches and 62% of Waalwijk's.
Do FC Volendam and Waalwijk tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.