FC Volendam vs Waalwijk Prediction & Preview

Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 60% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC Volendam face Waalwijk.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

FC Volendam host Waalwijk at Kras Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 29). Kick-off is Friday 5 March 2027 at 19:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, FC Volendam have gone 5W 1D 4L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, FC Volendam have gone 6W 0D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Waalwijk stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Waalwijk have posted 1W 6D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Volendam at 1.60 PPG versus Waalwijk's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of FC Volendam's games and 70% of Waalwijk's (from FC Volendam's last 10 home games and Waalwijk's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for FC Volendam, 2 for Waalwijk and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.6 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2026, ended FC Volendam 1–1 Waalwijk — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

FC Volendam in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).

Waalwijk in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 62% and Waalwijk 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 62% | Waalwijk 64%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FC Volendam surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Waalwijk have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 47% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 2.14 xG and Waalwijk 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.458 / defence 0.940 | Waalwijk attack 0.760 / defence 0.832. League average goals — home 1.767 / away 1.586. FC Volendam carry an above-average attack rating of 1.458 — their 2.14 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Waalwijk's attack rating of 0.760 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.13. Data: built from FC Volendam's last 14 games and Waalwijk's last 52.

Result probabilities: FC Volendam 60% | Draw 22% | Waalwijk 19%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 1.67 | Draw 4.64 | Waalwijk 5.36. The model has a clear lean to FC Volendam (60%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (2.14 / 1.13) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, FC Volendam are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.28 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (FC Volendam's last 10 home games and Waalwijk's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Volendam 60% (last 10 home games) | Waalwijk 70% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights