FC Volendam vs Vitesse – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Volendam at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Volendam vs Vitesse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Volendam and Vitesse meet at Kras Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Friday 9 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Volendam have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Volendam at Kras Stadion this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Vitesse (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Vitesse have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Vitesse have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Vitesse are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for FC Volendam, 1 for Vitesse and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2025, ended 4–0 with FC Volendam winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
FC Volendam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Vitesse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 60% and Vitesse 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 62% | Vitesse 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 2.03 xG and Vitesse 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.454 / defence 0.900 | Vitesse attack 1.236 / defence 0.789. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. FC Volendam carry an above-average attack strength of 1.454 — their λ of 2.03 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Vitesse's defence strength of 0.789 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Vitesse have an above-average attack strength of 1.236 — the away xG of 1.89 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 4 FC Volendam games / 42 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 42% | Draw 21% | Vitesse 37%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 2.38 | Draw 4.76 | Vitesse 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.92. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.92 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.03 / 1.89) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
FC Volendam dominate the H2H record, yet Vitesse are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Volendam at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vitesse (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 75% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 74% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 70% | Vitesse 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Vitesse | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 9 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 42% | Draw 21% | Vitesse 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 74% | xG FC Volendam 2.03 / Vitesse 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.454 / def 0.900 | Vitesse attack 1.236 / def 0.789 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Vitesse xG
74%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Vitesse kick off?
FC Volendam vs Vitesse is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 9 October 2026 at Kras Stadion.
Where is FC Volendam vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Vitesse part of?
FC Volendam vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 42% chance of winning, Vitesse a 37% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both FC Volendam and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Vitesse?
Record (6 meetings): FC Volendam 3W | Draws 2 | Vitesse 1W.
What form are FC Volendam and Vitesse in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Vitesse (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Volendam's attack at 1.45x the league average against Vitesse's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 2.03 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vitesse's attack (1.24x) against FC Volendam's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.89.
These ratings are built from 4/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (7.7%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
42%
2.36
21%
4.79
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.6%
Draw
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.92
1.89
Vitesse xG
2.36
42%
Home win
4.79
21%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.36
26%
BTTS No
3.81
Clean Sheet
15%
6.62
13%
7.62
Win to Nil
6%
15.64
5%
20.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.89 for Vitesse, a combined total of 3.92.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Vitesse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Volendam come into this having played 40 games, going 11W 8D 21L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Vitesse sit at 1.55 PPG from 40 outings (17W 11D 12L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Vitesse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vitesse carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
FC Volendam's home form reads 8W 4D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.02 PPG overall — FC Volendam are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Vitesse have taken 1.79 points per game from 19 outings (10W 4D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
FC Volendam are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.78 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Vitesse in 65%.
Last 40 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Early Season
Vitesse
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Vitesse in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 11W 8D 21L in their last 40 games (1.02 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 17W 11D 12L in their last 40 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Vitesse away?
Vitesse's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.47 PPG; Vitesse away: 1.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
FC Volendam have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Volendam won 4-0 on 17 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Vitesse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
FC Volendam
2
Draws
1
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Vitesse?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 3, Vitesse have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2025, when FC Volendam 4-0 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Vitesse?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 74% for FC Volendam, 58% for Vitesse — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for FC Volendam and 68% for Vitesse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 16% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Vitesse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of FC Volendam's games and 58% of Vitesse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of FC Volendam's matches and 68% of Vitesse's.
Do FC Volendam and Vitesse tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.