Dordrecht 0-3 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dordrecht at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dordrecht vs Emmen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dordrecht host Emmen at GN Bouw Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 9 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dordrecht stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at GN Bouw Stadion this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Emmen have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Emmen have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Emmen are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Dordrecht register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Emmen in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Dordrecht have won 5, Emmen 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with Dordrecht winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Dordrecht trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Emmen trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dordrecht 66% and Emmen 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 60% | Emmen 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 2.37 xG and Emmen 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.021 / defence 1.253 | Emmen attack 1.027 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.954 / away 1.475. Data: 47 Dordrecht games / 47 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 49% | Draw 20% | Emmen 31%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 2.04 | Draw 5.00 | Emmen 3.23. Dordrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS probability 77% | Total xG 4.27. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.27 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% reflects that both xG figures (2.37 / 1.90) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Dordrecht dominate the H2H record, yet Emmen are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Dordrecht are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Emmen (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 80% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 77%. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 60% | Emmen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: GN Bouw Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 9 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 49% | Draw 20% | Emmen 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% | BTTS 77% | xG Dordrecht 2.37 / Emmen 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 1.021 / def 1.253 | Emmen attack 1.027 / def 1.189 | league avg home 1.954 / away 1.475 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.90
Emmen xG
77%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Emmen kick off?
Dordrecht vs Emmen kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 9 October 2026 at GN Bouw Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Emmen?
Dordrecht 0 - 3 Emmen.
Where is Dordrecht vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at GN Bouw Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Emmen part of?
Dordrecht vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 49% chance of winning, Emmen a 31% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 77% probability that both Dordrecht and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Emmen?
Record (9 meetings): Dordrecht 5W | Draws 1 | Emmen 3W.
What form are Dordrecht and Emmen in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Emmen (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dordrecht's attack rating (1.02) and Emmen's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 2.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.1%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
49%
2.04
20%
5.12
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
1 – 1
6.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
4.27
1.90
Emmen xG
2.04
49%
Home win
5.12
20%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
62%
Over 3.5
1.61
38%
Under 3.5
2.63
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
77%
BTTS Yes
1.30
23%
BTTS No
4.36
Clean Sheet
15%
6.67
9%
10.71
Win to Nil
7%
13.59
3%
34.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.5%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.90 for Emmen, a combined total of 4.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Dordrecht have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 14W 13D 20L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen's form line: 17W 10D 20L from 47 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-D. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dordrecht on 1.17 PPG, Emmen on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dordrecht have posted 1.26 PPG from 23 outings (8W 5D 10L).
On the road, Emmen have gone 5W 5D 13L from 23 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Emmen's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Dordrecht are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.64 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Emmen in 62%.
Last 47 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Emmen in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 14W 13D 20L in their last 47 games (1.17 PPG), while Emmen have gone 17W 10D 20L in their last 47 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Emmen away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.26 PPG; Emmen away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 9 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Feb 2025, when Dordrecht won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dordrecht's record when hosting Emmen specifically: 3W 0D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Dordrecht
1
Draws
4
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Emmen?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 5, Emmen have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 9 October 2026, when Dordrecht 0-3 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Emmen?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 61%, Emmen 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Dordrecht) and 65% (Emmen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Emmen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Dordrecht's games and 61% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dordrecht vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Dordrecht's matches and 65% of Emmen's.
Do Dordrecht and Emmen tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Emmen in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Emmen run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Dordrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Dordrecht 0-3 at GN Bouw Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 2.37 xG and Emmen 1.90 xG, a combined 4.27. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Dordrecht fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Emmen outscored their 1.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.02 / defence 1.25 against Emmen attack 1.03 / defence 1.19, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 49% | Draw 20% | Emmen 31%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Emmen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 62% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 77% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 60%, Emmen 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Emmen's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.17 PPG, Emmen 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.