FC Volendam 6-2 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC Volendam (71%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC Volendam face Jong Utrecht.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jong Utrecht make the trip to Kras Stadion to face FC Volendam in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Friday 23 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
FC Volendam (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Kras Stadion this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Jong Utrecht's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong Utrecht have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. FC Volendam's 1.60 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Jong Utrecht's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours FC Volendam, who have won 4 of the last 4 meetings against Jong Utrecht — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2025, ended 3–2 with FC Volendam winning.
The historical record gives FC Volendam a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
FC Volendam half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Jong Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 60% and Jong Utrecht 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 60% | Jong Utrecht 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 2.68 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.379 / defence 0.828 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.916 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.840 / away 1.459. FC Volendam carry an above-average attack strength of 1.379 — their λ of 2.68 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 11 FC Volendam games / 49 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 71% | Draw 16% | Jong Utrecht 13%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 1.41 | Draw 6.25 | Jong Utrecht 7.69. The model has a clear lean to FC Volendam (71%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.68 / 1.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Volendam at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 50% | Jong Utrecht 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 71% | Draw 16% | Jong Utrecht 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 62% | xG FC Volendam 2.68 / Jong Utrecht 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.379 / def 0.828 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.916 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.840 / away 1.459 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.68
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Jong Utrecht xG
62%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 23 October 2026 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht?
FC Volendam 6 - 2 Jong Utrecht.
Where is FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht part of?
FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 71% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 13% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both FC Volendam and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Jong Utrecht?
Record (4 meetings): FC Volendam 4W | Draws 0 | Jong Utrecht 0W.
What form are FC Volendam and Jong Utrecht in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC Volendam's attacking strength (1.38x league average) is weighed against Jong Utrecht's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.68. Flip it around — Jong Utrecht's attack (0.92x) against FC Volendam's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 11/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.1%), 3-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
71%
1.41
16%
6.26
13%
7.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.68
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.79
1.11
Jong Utrecht xG
1.41
71%
Home win
6.26
16%
Draw
7.51
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
7%
14.59
Win to Nil
23%
4.28
1%
109.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.68 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.11 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 3.79.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Volendam's recent record stands at 14W 9D 24L from 47 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong Utrecht, meanwhile, have gone 14W 10D 23L across 47 games — 1.11 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for FC Volendam against 1.11 for Jong Utrecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC Volendam have managed 11W 5D 7L from 23 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — FC Volendam are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Jong Utrecht's away record stands at 5W 5D 13L across 23 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Volendam are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 1.55 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Utrecht in 68%.
Last 47 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 14W 9D 24L in their last 47 games (1.09 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 14W 10D 23L in their last 47 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Jong Utrecht away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.65 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 23 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: FC Volendam have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Volendam won 6-2 on 23 Oct 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
5
FC Volendam
0
Draws
0
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Jong Utrecht?
From 5 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 5, Jong Utrecht have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 23 October 2026, when FC Volendam 6-2 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Jong Utrecht?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for FC Volendam, 65% for Jong Utrecht — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for FC Volendam and 61% for Jong Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Jong Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of FC Volendam's games and 65% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of FC Volendam's matches and 61% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do FC Volendam and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Volendam run riot with a 6-2 hammering of Jong Utrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Jong Utrecht 6-2 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 2.68 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.11 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 6-2 for 8 actual goals. FC Volendam beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong Utrecht outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.38 / defence 0.83 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.92 / defence 1.06, drawn from 11/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 71% | Draw 16% | Jong Utrecht 13%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 71%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 60%, Jong Utrecht 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Volendam 1.09 PPG, Jong Utrecht 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Volendam win broke the near-deadlock. FC Volendam (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.