FC Volendam vs Heracles – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Volendam at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Volendam vs Heracles encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Volendam and Heracles meet at Kras Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 April 2027 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
FC Volendam's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Volendam's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Kras Stadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Heracles (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Heracles have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Heracles's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for FC Volendam, 1.20 for Heracles — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Heracles in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: FC Volendam 2W, Heracles 0W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 2–0 with FC Volendam winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
FC Volendam half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Heracles half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Volendam 58% versus Heracles 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 63% | Heracles 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 2.62 xG and Heracles 2.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.454 / defence 0.900 | Heracles attack 1.568 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. FC Volendam carry an above-average attack strength of 1.454 — their λ of 2.62 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Heracles have an above-average attack strength of 1.568 — the away xG of 2.40 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 4 FC Volendam games / 4 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 45% | Draw 18% | Heracles 37%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 2.22 | Draw 5.56 | Heracles 2.70. FC Volendam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (18%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 88% | BTTS probability 84% | Total xG 5.02. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 88% — a total xG of 5.02 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 84% reflects that both xG figures (2.62 / 2.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Volendam at 45% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 5.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 88% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 84% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 70% | Heracles 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Heracles | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Apr 2027, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 45% | Draw 18% | Heracles 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 88% | BTTS 84% | xG FC Volendam 2.62 / Heracles 2.40 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.454 / def 0.900 | Heracles attack 1.568 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.62
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
2.40
Heracles xG
84%
BTTS
96%
Over 1.5
88%
Over 2.5
74%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Heracles kick off?
FC Volendam vs Heracles is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 10 April 2027 at Kras Stadion.
Where is FC Volendam vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Heracles part of?
FC Volendam vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 45% chance of winning, Heracles a 37% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 84% probability that both FC Volendam and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 88%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Heracles?
Record (4 meetings): FC Volendam 2W | Draws 2 | Heracles 0W.
What form are FC Volendam and Heracles in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Heracles (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Volendam's attack at 1.45x the league average against Heracles's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 2.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Heracles's attack (1.57x) against FC Volendam's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 2.40.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-2 carries the highest individual probability at 6.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-2 (5.7%), 2-1 (5.4%). Even combined, the top three scorelines only cover 18% of the total probability — the model sees a wide spread of plausible outcomes rather than one clear shape to the game.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
45%
2.23
18%
5.49
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
6.5%
Draw
Most likely
3 – 2
5.7%
Home win
2 – 1
5.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.62
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
5.02
2.40
Heracles xG
2.23
45%
Home win
5.49
18%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
96%
Over 1.5
1.04
4%
Under 1.5
25.00
88%
Over 2.5
1.14
12%
Under 2.5
8.33
74%
Over 3.5
1.35
26%
Under 3.5
3.85
56%
Over 4.5
1.79
44%
Under 4.5
2.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
84%
BTTS Yes
1.19
16%
BTTS No
6.38
Clean Sheet
9%
10.99
7%
13.80
Win to Nil
4%
24.51
3%
37.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 1.7 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 2-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 6.5%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 2.62 expected goals for FC Volendam and 2.40 for Heracles, a combined total of 5.02.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Volendam's recent record stands at 11W 6D 21L from 38 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Heracles, meanwhile, have gone 9W 4D 25L across 38 games — 0.82 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Heracles, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for FC Volendam against 0.82 for Heracles. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC Volendam have managed 8W 4D 7L from 19 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.03 PPG overall — FC Volendam are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Heracles's away record stands at 4W 1D 14L across 19 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Volendam are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.34 scored and 2.42 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Early Season
Heracles
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Heracles in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 11W 6D 21L in their last 38 games (1.03 PPG), while Heracles have gone 9W 4D 25L in their last 38 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Heracles away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.47 PPG; Heracles away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Volendam have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Volendam won 3-0 on 25 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Heracles — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC Volendam
2
Draws
0
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Heracles?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 2, Heracles have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Heracles 0-2 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Heracles?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 74% for FC Volendam, 58% for Heracles — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for FC Volendam and 79% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 16% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Heracles?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of FC Volendam's games and 58% of Heracles's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of FC Volendam's matches and 79% of Heracles's.
Do FC Volendam and Heracles tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Heracles in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.