FC Volendam vs FC Eindhoven – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Volendam at 73% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Volendam vs FC Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Eindhoven make the trip to Kras Stadion to face FC Volendam in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 November 2026 at 11:15 UTC.
Form
FC Volendam (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Volendam's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Kras Stadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Eindhoven have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. FC Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, FC Eindhoven have posted 2W 0D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for FC Volendam against 1.00 for FC Eindhoven. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, FC Eindhoven in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Volendam lead 2W to 0W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.2 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2025, ended 3–1 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
FC Volendam half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
FC Eindhoven half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Volendam 60% versus FC Eindhoven 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 62% | FC Eindhoven 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 3.10 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.454 / defence 0.900 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.863 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. FC Volendam carry an above-average attack strength of 1.454 — their λ of 3.10 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC Eindhoven bring a strong defensive rating of 1.205 — this is suppressing FC Volendam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 FC Volendam games / 42 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 73% | Draw 14% | FC Eindhoven 13%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 1.37 | Draw 7.14 | FC Eindhoven 7.69. The model has a clear lean to FC Volendam (73%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 4.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (3.10 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Volendam as the most likely outcome at 73% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 4.42 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 82% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 70% | FC Eindhoven 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 73% | Draw 14% | FC Eindhoven 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% | BTTS 70% | xG FC Volendam 3.10 / FC Eindhoven 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.454 / def 0.900 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.863 / def 1.205 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.10
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.32
FC Eindhoven xG
70%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
FC Volendam vs FC Eindhoven is scheduled to kick off at 11:15 on Sunday 29 November 2026 at Kras Stadion.
Where is FC Volendam vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs FC Eindhoven part of?
FC Volendam vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 73% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 13% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both FC Volendam and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and FC Eindhoven?
Record (4 meetings): FC Volendam 2W | Draws 2 | FC Eindhoven 0W.
What form are FC Volendam and FC Eindhoven in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC Volendam's attacking strength (1.45x league average) is weighed against FC Eindhoven's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.10. Flip it around — FC Eindhoven's attack (0.86x) against FC Volendam's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 4/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-1, at 7.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.6%), 4-1 (6.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
73%
1.37
14%
7.07
13%
7.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
4 – 1
6.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.10
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
4.42
1.32
FC Eindhoven xG
1.37
73%
Home win
7.07
14%
Draw
7.68
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
64%
Over 3.5
1.56
36%
Under 3.5
2.78
45%
Over 4.5
2.22
55%
Under 4.5
1.82
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.33
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
5%
22.22
Win to Nil
19%
5.13
1%
170.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.9%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 3.10 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.32 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 4.42.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs FC Eindhoven?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Volendam's recent record stands at 11W 8D 21L from 40 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Eindhoven, meanwhile, have gone 13W 5D 22L across 40 games — 1.10 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for FC Volendam against 1.10 for FC Eindhoven. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC Volendam have managed 8W 5D 7L from 20 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.02 PPG overall — FC Volendam are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
FC Eindhoven's away record stands at 5W 2D 13L across 20 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Volendam are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.38 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Early Season
FC Eindhoven
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 11W 8D 21L in their last 40 games (1.02 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 13W 5D 22L in their last 40 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or FC Eindhoven away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.45 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: FC Volendam have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Volendam won 4-1 on 25 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC Volendam
2
Draws
0
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and FC Eindhoven?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 2, FC Eindhoven have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2025, when FC Eindhoven 1-3 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and FC Eindhoven?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 75%, FC Eindhoven 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for FC Volendam and 65% for FC Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play FC Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of FC Volendam's games and 50% of FC Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of FC Volendam's matches and 65% of FC Eindhoven's.
Do FC Volendam and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.