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Dominant Excelsior run riot with a 1-4 hammering of FC Volendam.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Excelsior beat FC Volendam 1-4 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 2.10 xG and Excelsior 1.12 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. FC Volendam fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Excelsior outscored their 1.12 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.41 / defence 0.80 against Excelsior attack 1.12 / defence 0.89, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 59% | Draw 22% | Excelsior 19%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Excelsior win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 71%, Excelsior 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Volendam's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Excelsior's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Volendam 1.40 PPG, Excelsior 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Excelsior win broke the near-deadlock. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Excelsior (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights