FC Volendam 2-1 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Volendam at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Volendam vs De Graafschap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Volendam host De Graafschap at Kras Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 December 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Volendam — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam's home record at Kras Stadion: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kras Stadion.
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, FC Volendam have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, FC Volendam have won 2, De Graafschap 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2024, ended 3–4 with De Graafschap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC Volendam in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 64% and De Graafschap 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 68% | De Graafschap 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 2.19 xG and De Graafschap 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.294 / defence 0.828 | De Graafschap attack 0.935 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.411. FC Volendam carry an above-average attack strength of 1.294 — their λ of 2.19 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 19 FC Volendam games / 57 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 61% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 16%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | De Graafschap 6.25. The model has a clear lean to FC Volendam (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.19 / 1.09) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Volendam at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 40% | De Graafschap 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Dec 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 61% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 61% | xG FC Volendam 2.19 / De Graafschap 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.294 / def 0.828 | De Graafschap attack 0.935 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.537 / away 1.411 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.09
De Graafschap xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs De Graafschap kick off?
FC Volendam vs De Graafschap kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 22 December 2024 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs De Graafschap?
FC Volendam 2 - 1 De Graafschap.
Where is FC Volendam vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs De Graafschap part of?
FC Volendam vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 61% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both FC Volendam and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and De Graafschap?
Record (3 meetings): FC Volendam 2W | Draws 0 | De Graafschap 1W.
What form are FC Volendam and De Graafschap in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Volendam's attack at 1.29x the league average against De Graafschap's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 2.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
61%
1.64
23%
4.41
16%
6.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.29
1.09
De Graafschap xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
6.11
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
11%
8.98
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
2%
54.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.09 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs De Graafschap?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Volendam's recent record stands at 15W 11D 27L from 53 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 25W 11D 17L across 53 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours De Graafschap by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Volendam heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Volendam have managed 10W 2D 14L from 26 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 8W 7D 11L across 26 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of De Graafschap's season.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Volendam are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.85 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; De Graafschap in 64%.
Last 53 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 15W 11D 27L in their last 53 games (1.06 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 25W 11D 17L in their last 53 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or De Graafschap away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.23 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Sep 2021, when FC Volendam won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Volendam's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
FC Volendam
0
Draws
1
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and De Graafschap?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 3, De Graafschap have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 22 December 2024, when FC Volendam 2-1 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and De Graafschap?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 46%, De Graafschap 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for FC Volendam and 73% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of FC Volendam's games and 65% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of FC Volendam's matches and 73% of De Graafschap's.
Do FC Volendam and De Graafschap tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Volendam edge out De Graafschap 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat De Graafschap 2-1 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 2.19 xG and De Graafschap 1.09 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.29 / defence 0.83 against De Graafschap attack 0.94 / defence 1.10, drawn from 19/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 61% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 16%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 68%, De Graafschap 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.06. Form was overturned, with FC Volendam winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Volendam (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.