FC Volendam vs Almere City FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Volendam vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 25 as FC Volendam welcome Almere City FC to Kras Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 5 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Volendam stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Volendam's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Kras Stadion this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Almere City FC have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Almere City FC have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Almere City FC away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Almere City FC's 1.70 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of FC Volendam's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Volendam register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Almere City FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for FC Volendam, 1 for Almere City FC and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC Volendam in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Almere City FC in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 60% and Almere City FC 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 63% | Almere City FC 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.66 xG and Almere City FC 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.261 / defence 0.801 | Almere City FC attack 1.365 / defence 0.680. League average goals — home 1.939 / away 1.589. FC Volendam carry an above-average attack strength of 1.261 — their λ of 1.66 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Almere City FC's defence strength of 0.680 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Almere City FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.365 — the away xG of 1.74 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 7 FC Volendam games / 45 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 37% | Draw 23% | Almere City FC 40%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 2.70 | Draw 4.35 | Almere City FC 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Almere City FC as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almere City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.40 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 60% | Almere City FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 5 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 37% | Draw 23% | Almere City FC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG FC Volendam 1.66 / Almere City FC 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.261 / def 0.801 | Almere City FC attack 1.365 / def 0.680 | league avg home 1.939 / away 1.589 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Almere City FC xG
67%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Almere City FC kick off?
FC Volendam vs Almere City FC is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 5 February 2027 at Kras Stadion.
Where is FC Volendam vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Almere City FC part of?
FC Volendam vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 37% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 40% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both FC Volendam and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Almere City FC?
Record (4 meetings): FC Volendam 2W | Draws 1 | Almere City FC 1W.
What form are FC Volendam and Almere City FC in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Almere City FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Volendam's attack rating (1.26) and Almere City FC's defence rating (0.68), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
37%
2.70
23%
4.42
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.40
1.74
Almere City FC xG
2.70
37%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
18%
5.69
19%
5.27
Win to Nil
7%
15.33
8%
13.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.6 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.74 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Volendam's recent record stands at 12W 8D 23L from 43 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Almere City FC, meanwhile, have gone 23W 6D 14L across 43 games — 1.74 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Almere City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Almere City FC by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Volendam heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Volendam have managed 9W 5D 7L from 21 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.02 PPG overall — FC Volendam are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Almere City FC's away record stands at 11W 3D 7L across 21 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Volendam are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 2.02 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Almere City FC in 65%.
Last 43 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Early Season
Almere City FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 12W 8D 23L in their last 43 games (1.02 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 23W 6D 14L in their last 43 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Almere City FC away?
Almere City FC's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.52 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
FC Volendam's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC Volendam
1
Draws
1
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Almere City FC?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 2, Almere City FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 31 March 2024, when Almere City FC 1-1 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Almere City FC?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Volendam at 71%, Almere City FC at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for FC Volendam and 71% for Almere City FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of FC Volendam's games and 71% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FC Volendam's matches and 71% of Almere City FC's.
Do FC Volendam and Almere City FC tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.