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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as ADO Den Haag defy the odds to beat FC Volendam 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

ADO Den Haag beat FC Volendam 1-2 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.87 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.22 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Volendam fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.30 / defence 0.83 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.15 / defence 0.87, drawn from 24/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 52% | Draw 24% | ADO Den Haag 24%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a ADO Den Haag win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 71%, ADO Den Haag 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Volendam's trading profile (58 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (58 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights