FC Volendam 1-2 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Volendam vs ADO Den Haag fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
ADO Den Haag make the trip to Kras Stadion to face FC Volendam in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Friday 7 February 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
FC Volendam (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kras Stadion, FC Volendam have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kras Stadion.
ADO Den Haag have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ADO Den Haag away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.30 PPG for FC Volendam against 1.90 for ADO Den Haag. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Volendam lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2024, ended 1–2 with ADO Den Haag winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC Volendam — key trading statistics (58 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
ADO Den Haag — key trading statistics (58 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 64% and ADO Den Haag 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 71% | ADO Den Haag 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.87 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.303 / defence 0.827 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.148 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.288. FC Volendam carry an above-average attack strength of 1.303 — their λ of 1.87 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 24 FC Volendam games / 62 ADO Den Haag games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 52% | Draw 24% | ADO Den Haag 24%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | ADO Den Haag 4.17. FC Volendam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Volendam are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Volendam if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 50% | ADO Den Haag 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 7 Feb 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 52% | Draw 24% | ADO Den Haag 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 60% | xG FC Volendam 1.87 / ADO Den Haag 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.303 / def 0.827 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.148 / def 0.873 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.22
ADO Den Haag xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
FC Volendam vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 7 February 2025 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs ADO Den Haag?
FC Volendam 1 - 2 ADO Den Haag.
Where is FC Volendam vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs ADO Den Haag part of?
FC Volendam vs ADO Den Haag is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 52% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FC Volendam and ADO Den Haag will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and ADO Den Haag?
Record (3 meetings): FC Volendam 0W | Draws 1 | ADO Den Haag 2W.
What form are FC Volendam and ADO Den Haag in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. ADO Den Haag (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC Volendam's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against ADO Den Haag's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. Flip it around — ADO Den Haag's attack (1.15x) against FC Volendam's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 24/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
52%
1.92
24%
4.21
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.09
1.22
ADO Den Haag xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
15%
6.49
Win to Nil
15%
6.53
4%
26.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.4 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.22 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs ADO Den Haag?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 58 outings, FC Volendam have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 19W 11D 28L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ADO Den Haag's form line: 25W 17D 16L from 58 games, 1.59 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for ADO Den Haag is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, ADO Den Haag are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Volendam.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Volendam have posted 1.52 PPG from 27 outings (13W 2D 12L).
On the road, ADO Den Haag have gone 10W 8D 9L from 27 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Volendam are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 2.03 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 1.84 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; ADO Den Haag in 71%.
Last 58 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
ADO Den Haag
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 19W 11D 28L in their last 58 games (1.17 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 25W 17D 16L in their last 58 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or ADO Den Haag away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.52 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: ADO Den Haag have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against ADO Den Haag — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
FC Volendam
1
Draws
3
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and ADO Den Haag?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 0, ADO Den Haag have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2025, when FC Volendam 1-2 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and ADO Den Haag?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 48%, ADO Den Haag 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for FC Volendam and 74% for ADO Den Haag. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play ADO Den Haag?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of FC Volendam's games and 74% of ADO Den Haag's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs ADO Den Haag usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of FC Volendam's matches and 74% of ADO Den Haag's.
Do FC Volendam and ADO Den Haag tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, ADO Den Haag in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as ADO Den Haag defy the odds to beat FC Volendam 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat FC Volendam 1-2 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.87 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.22 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Volendam fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.30 / defence 0.83 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.15 / defence 0.87, drawn from 24/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 52% | Draw 24% | ADO Den Haag 24%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a ADO Den Haag win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 71%, ADO Den Haag 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (58 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (58 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.