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Willem II cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC OSS.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Willem II beat FC OSS 1-3 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.26 xG and Willem II 1.66 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Willem II outscored their 1.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Willem II attack 0.98 / defence 0.89, drawn from 68/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC OSS 28% | Draw 25% | Willem II 46%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 47%, Willem II 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC OSS's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Willem II's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC OSS 0.97 PPG, Willem II 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. FC OSS (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights