FC OSS vs Waalwijk – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 39%, yet in-form FC OSS provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC OSS vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Frans Heesen Stadion plays host to FC OSS versus Waalwijk in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Friday 6 November 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC OSS have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC OSS have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC OSS's home record at Frans Heesen Stadion: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Waalwijk (all games): 1W 7D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Waalwijk have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Waalwijk have posted 2W 7D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in FC OSS's favour (1.80 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — FC OSS register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Waalwijk in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: FC OSS 0W, Waalwijk 1W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jan 2026, ended 0–2 with Waalwijk winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
FC OSS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games).
Waalwijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC OSS 64% and Waalwijk 81% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 62% | Waalwijk 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.56 xG and Waalwijk 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.956 / defence 1.016 | Waalwijk attack 0.927 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Data: 42 FC OSS games / 42 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 37% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 39%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | Waalwijk 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Waalwijk as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC OSS (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Waalwijk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 80% | Waalwijk 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 6 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 37% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG FC OSS 1.56 / Waalwijk 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.956 / def 1.016 | Waalwijk attack 0.927 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Waalwijk xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs Waalwijk kick off?
FC OSS vs Waalwijk is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 6 November 2026 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
Where is FC OSS vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Waalwijk part of?
FC OSS vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 37% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both FC OSS and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Waalwijk?
Record (2 meetings): FC OSS 0W | Draws 1 | Waalwijk 1W.
What form are FC OSS and Waalwijk in?
FC OSS (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Waalwijk (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC OSS's attack at 0.96x the league average against Waalwijk's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Waalwijk's attack (0.93x) against FC OSS's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
37%
2.68
24%
4.24
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
FC OSS xG
Total xG
3.16
1.60
Waalwijk xG
2.68
37%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
20%
4.95
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
8%
13.29
8%
12.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.6 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.60 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, FC OSS have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 12W 11D 19L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC OSS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Waalwijk's form line: 14W 16D 12L from 42 games, 1.38 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Waalwijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for FC OSS against 1.38 for Waalwijk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC OSS have posted 1.14 PPG from 21 outings (7W 3D 11L).
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 6W 10D 5L from 21 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
FC OSS are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.76 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC OSS have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Waalwijk in 81%.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Early Season
Waalwijk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 12W 11D 19L in their last 42 games (1.12 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 14W 16D 12L in their last 42 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Waalwijk away?
Waalwijk's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.14 PPG; Waalwijk away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
FC OSS
1
Draws
1
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Waalwijk?
From 2 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 0, Waalwijk have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Waalwijk 2-0 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Waalwijk?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for FC OSS, 81% for Waalwijk — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for FC OSS and 62% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of FC OSS's games and 81% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC OSS vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of FC OSS's matches and 62% of Waalwijk's.
Do FC OSS and Waalwijk tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.