Waalwijk 1-2 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Waalwijk at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Waalwijk vs Almere City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mandemakers Stadion plays host to Waalwijk versus Almere City FC in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Friday 30 October 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Waalwijk's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Waalwijk have posted 4W 5D 1L at Mandemakers Stadion — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Almere City FC have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: L W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Waalwijk, 1.80 for Almere City FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Waalwijk register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Almere City FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Waalwijk 3W, Almere City FC 1W, 2D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Waalwijk — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 76% and Almere City FC 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Waalwijk 59% | Almere City FC 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.95 xG and Almere City FC 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 1.157 / defence 0.982 | Almere City FC attack 1.223 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.875 / away 1.542. Almere City FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.223 — the away xG of 1.85 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 Waalwijk games / 50 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 41% | Draw 21% | Almere City FC 37%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.44 | Draw 4.76 | Almere City FC 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.80. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.80 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
Waalwijk dominate the H2H record, yet Almere City FC are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Waalwijk are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 80% | Almere City FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 30 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 41% | Draw 21% | Almere City FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 72% | xG Waalwijk 1.95 / Almere City FC 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 1.157 / def 0.982 | Almere City FC attack 1.223 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.875 / away 1.542 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Almere City FC xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Almere City FC kick off?
Waalwijk vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 30 October 2026 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Almere City FC?
Waalwijk 1 - 2 Almere City FC.
Where is Waalwijk vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Almere City FC part of?
Waalwijk vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 41% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 37% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Waalwijk and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Almere City FC?
Record (6 meetings): Waalwijk 3W | Draws 2 | Almere City FC 1W.
What form are Waalwijk and Almere City FC in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Almere City FC (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Waalwijk's attack at 1.16x the league average against Almere City FC's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (1.22x) against Waalwijk's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.85.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (7.9%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
41%
2.42
21%
4.70
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.80
1.85
Almere City FC xG
2.42
41%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.38
28%
BTTS No
3.61
Clean Sheet
16%
6.37
14%
7.04
Win to Nil
6%
15.38
5%
18.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 8.1 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.85 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 3.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Waalwijk have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 19W 20D 15L record — L-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Almere City FC's form line: 27W 6D 21L from 54 games, 1.61 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Waalwijk against 1.61 for Almere City FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Waalwijk have posted 1.56 PPG from 27 outings (11W 9D 7L).
On the road, Almere City FC have gone 11W 3D 13L from 27 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Waalwijk are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 2.04 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games; Almere City FC in 63%.
Last 54 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 19W 20D 15L in their last 54 games (1.43 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 27W 6D 21L in their last 54 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Almere City FC away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.56 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 30 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Waalwijk won 1-4 on 2 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waalwijk have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Waalwijk
2
Draws
2
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Almere City FC?
From 7 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 3, Almere City FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 30 October 2026, when Waalwijk 1-2 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Almere City FC?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 82% for Waalwijk, 74% for Almere City FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Waalwijk and 74% for Almere City FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Waalwijk's games and 74% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Waalwijk's matches and 74% of Almere City FC's.
Do Waalwijk and Almere City FC tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Almere City FC defy the odds to beat Waalwijk 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat Waalwijk 1-2 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.95 xG and Almere City FC 1.85 xG, a combined 3.80. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Waalwijk fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 1.16 / defence 0.98 against Almere City FC attack 1.22 / defence 0.90, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 41% | Draw 21% | Almere City FC 37%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Almere City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 59%, Almere City FC 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Almere City FC's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 1.43 PPG, Almere City FC 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almere City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Waalwijk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.