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Shock result as Roda defy the odds to beat FC OSS 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Roda beat FC OSS 1-2 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.59 xG and Roda 1.53 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.98 / defence 1.08 against Roda attack 1.06 / defence 0.94, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC OSS 39% | Draw 24% | Roda 37%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Roda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 47%, Roda 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC OSS's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Roda's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC OSS 1.07 PPG, Roda 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights