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Poisson model rates FC OSS at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC OSS vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

FC OSS host Roda at Frans Heesen Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 26 September 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

FC OSS — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC OSS have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

FC OSS's home record at Frans Heesen Stadion: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Roda stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Roda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

On the road, Roda have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC OSS at 1.20 PPG versus Roda's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

Roda have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 8 encounters against FC OSS's 1 victories.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2025, ended 0–2 with Roda winning.

It is worth noting that Roda have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Patterns

FC OSS in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Roda in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 44% versus Roda 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 47% | Roda 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.59 xG and Roda 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.979 / defence 1.083 | Roda attack 1.060 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.719 / away 1.331. Data: 45 FC OSS games / 45 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC OSS 39% | Draw 24% | Roda 37%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 2.56 | Draw 4.17 | Roda 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is FC OSS at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC OSS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 40% | Roda 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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