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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Jong AZ run riot with a 0-3 hammering of FC OSS.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong AZ beat FC OSS 0-3 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.69 xG and Jong AZ 2.37 xG, a combined 4.07. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. FC OSS fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.94 / defence 1.13 against Jong AZ attack 1.41 / defence 1.02, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC OSS 26% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 52%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 47%, Jong AZ 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC OSS's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Jong AZ's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC OSS 1.00 PPG, Jong AZ 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights