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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC OSS and Jong Ajax share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 12, as FC OSS and Jong Ajax drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.82 xG and Jong Ajax 1.28 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. FC OSS fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.85 / defence 1.00 against Jong Ajax attack 0.93 / defence 1.17, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC OSS 50% | Draw 23% | Jong Ajax 27%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 47%, Jong Ajax 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC OSS's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Jong Ajax's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC OSS 1.02 PPG, Jong Ajax 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights