FC OSS vs Jong Ajax – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC OSS edge out Jong Ajax 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC OSS beat Jong Ajax 2-1 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.52 xG and Jong Ajax 1.41 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.82 / defence 1.13 against Jong Ajax attack 0.89 / defence 1.20, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC OSS 39% | Draw 28% | Jong Ajax 34%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 48%, Jong Ajax 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC OSS's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Jong Ajax's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC OSS 0.95 PPG, Jong Ajax 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC OSS win broke the near-deadlock. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights