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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC OSS and Helmond Sport share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 24, as FC OSS and Helmond Sport drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.44 xG and Helmond Sport 1.25 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.71 / defence 1.07 against Helmond Sport attack 0.90 / defence 1.22, drawn from 61/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC OSS 41% | Draw 27% | Helmond Sport 32%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 47%, Helmond Sport 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC OSS's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Helmond Sport's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Helmond Sport arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights