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De Graafschap cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC OSS.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

De Graafschap beat FC OSS 0-2 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 0.96 xG and De Graafschap 1.36 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC OSS fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.61 / defence 1.25 against De Graafschap attack 0.86 / defence 0.95, drawn from 68/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC OSS 27% | Draw 28% | De Graafschap 46%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 46%, De Graafschap 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC OSS's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.

De Graafschap's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.93. Form held, and they took the win. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. De Graafschap (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights