FC OSS 0-2 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours De Graafschap (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC OSS face De Graafschap.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC OSS and De Graafschap meet at Frans Heesen Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 March 2025 at 11:15 UTC.
Form
FC OSS (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC OSS have posted 4W 3D 3L at Frans Heesen Stadion — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — FC OSS are significantly better at Frans Heesen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
De Graafschap have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
De Graafschap arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
De Graafschap hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2024, ended 0–4 with De Graafschap winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. De Graafschap have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
FC OSS — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 43% versus De Graafschap 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 46% | De Graafschap 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 0.96 xG and De Graafschap 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.610 / defence 1.247 | De Graafschap attack 0.856 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.651 / away 1.270. FC OSS's attack strength of 0.610 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 68 FC OSS games / 67 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 27% | Draw 28% | De Graafschap 46%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | De Graafschap 2.17. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: FC OSS 50% | De Graafschap 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Mar 2025, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 27% | Draw 28% | De Graafschap 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG FC OSS 0.96 / De Graafschap 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.610 / def 1.247 | De Graafschap attack 0.856 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.651 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.36
De Graafschap xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs De Graafschap kick off?
FC OSS vs De Graafschap kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 16 March 2025 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs De Graafschap?
FC OSS 0 - 2 De Graafschap.
Where is FC OSS vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs De Graafschap part of?
FC OSS vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 27% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both FC OSS and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and De Graafschap?
Record (7 meetings): FC OSS 1W | Draws 1 | De Graafschap 5W.
What form are FC OSS and De Graafschap in?
FC OSS (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC OSS's attacking strength (0.61x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (0.86x) against FC OSS's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 68/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
27%
3.77
28%
3.63
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
FC OSS xG
Total xG
2.32
1.36
De Graafschap xG
3.77
27%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
7%
14.61
18%
5.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 13.4 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are FC OSS and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.36 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC OSS come into this having played 68 games, going 16W 15D 37L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-D.
On the other side, De Graafschap sit at 1.65 PPG from 68 outings (33W 13D 22L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five.
De Graafschap carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of FC OSS — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
FC OSS's home form reads 13W 5D 16L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, De Graafschap have taken 1.24 points per game from 34 outings (11W 9D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.65 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of De Graafschap's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC OSS are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.81 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap in 65%.
Last 68 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Current Season
De Graafschap
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 16W 15D 37L in their last 68 games (0.93 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 33W 13D 22L in their last 68 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or De Graafschap away?
FC OSS's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.29 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 4-0 on 22 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC OSS have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
FC OSS
2
Draws
7
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 1, De Graafschap have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when FC OSS 2-3 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 50%, De Graafschap 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (FC OSS) and 68% (De Graafschap). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of FC OSS's games and 68% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC OSS vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of FC OSS's matches and 68% of De Graafschap's.
Do FC OSS and De Graafschap tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
De Graafschap cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat FC OSS 0-2 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 0.96 xG and De Graafschap 1.36 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC OSS fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.61 / defence 1.25 against De Graafschap attack 0.86 / defence 0.95, drawn from 68/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 27% | Draw 28% | De Graafschap 46%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 46%, De Graafschap 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
De Graafschap's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.93. Form held, and they took the win. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. De Graafschap (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.