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Willem II cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC Eindhoven.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Willem II beat FC Eindhoven 0-2 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 2.02 xG and Willem II 1.55 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC Eindhoven fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 1.06 / defence 1.13 against Willem II attack 0.90 / defence 1.10, drawn from 59/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 49% | Draw 22% | Willem II 29%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Willem II win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 61%, Willem II 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Eindhoven's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Willem II's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.32 PPG, Willem II 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights