FC Eindhoven 1-2 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC Eindhoven (66%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as FC Eindhoven face Jong Utrecht.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jan Louwers Stadion plays host to FC Eindhoven versus Jong Utrecht in Eerste Divisie (matchday 27). Kick-off: Sunday 23 February 2025 at 11:15 UK time.
Current Form
FC Eindhoven's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Eindhoven at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Jong Utrecht (all games): 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 — 0.60 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Jong Utrecht's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. FC Eindhoven's 1.60 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Jong Utrecht's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record in our data favours FC Eindhoven, who have won 6 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against Jong Utrecht — Jong Utrecht have 0 wins, with 0 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 9 Dec 2024, ended FC Eindhoven 4–0 Jong Utrecht — a FC Eindhoven win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both FC Eindhoven and goals — 6 wins from 6 H2H matches and an average of 3.5 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
FC Eindhoven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 62 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Jong Utrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 62 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 50% versus Jong Utrecht 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 55% | Jong Utrecht 50%). Note also that Jong Utrecht surrender HT leads in 67% of cases while FC Eindhoven recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 2.28 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 0.992 / defence 1.150 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.664 / defence 1.395. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.279. Jong Utrecht's defence rating of 1.395 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Eindhoven's projected output up. Jong Utrecht's attack rating of 0.664 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Data: built from FC Eindhoven's last 64 games and Jong Utrecht's last 62.
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 66% | Draw 19% | Jong Utrecht 14%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 1.51 | Draw 5.19 | Jong Utrecht 6.93. The model has a clear lean to FC Eindhoven (66%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (FC Eindhoven's last 10 home games and Jong Utrecht's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: FC Eindhoven 40% (last 10 home games) | Jong Utrecht 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 27 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 23 February 2025 at 11:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 66% | Draw 19% | Jong Utrecht 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG FC Eindhoven 2.28 / Jong Utrecht 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 0.992 / def 1.150 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.664 / def 1.395 | league avg home 1.647 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.28
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Jong Utrecht xG
56%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Eindhoven vs Jong Utrecht FAQs
What time does FC Eindhoven vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 11:15 UK time on Sunday 23 February 2025 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs Jong Utrecht?
FC Eindhoven 1 - 2 Jong Utrecht.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs Jong Utrecht part of?
FC Eindhoven vs Jong Utrecht is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 27) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 66% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 14% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FC Eindhoven and Jong Utrecht will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Eindhoven vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Eindhoven's attack at 0.99x the league average against Jong Utrecht's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 2.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong Utrecht's attack (0.66x) against FC Eindhoven's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from FC Eindhoven's last 64 games and Jong Utrecht's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 1-1 (9.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
66%
1.51
19%
5.19
14%
6.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.28
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
3.25
0.98
Jong Utrecht xG
1.51
66%
Home win
5.19
19%
Draw
6.93
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
10%
9.77
Win to Nil
25%
4.00
1%
67.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Eindhoven vs Jong Utrecht Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.28 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 0.98 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs Jong Utrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Eindhoven come into this having played 62 games, going 18W 20D 24L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Jong Utrecht sit at 0.65 PPG from 62 outings (7W 19D 36L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-L across their last five.
FC Eindhoven carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
FC Eindhoven's home form reads 7W 10D 12L across their last 29 home games, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong Utrecht have taken 0.41 points per game from their last 29 away games (1W 9D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 0.84 scored and 2.02 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
FC Eindhoven (Home) vs Jong Utrecht (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Eindhoven
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
❓ FC Eindhoven vs Jong Utrecht Form FAQs
What form are FC Eindhoven and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 18W 20D 24L in their last 62 games (1.19 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 7W 19D 36L in their last 62 (0.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or Jong Utrecht away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 1.07 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to January 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 7 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Eindhoven won FC Eindhoven 4-0 Jong Utrecht on 14 Jan 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Eindhoven have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
FC Eindhoven
1
Draws
2
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Eindhoven vs Jong Utrecht H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Jong Utrecht?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Eindhoven have won 7, Jong Utrecht have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 September 2026: Jong Utrecht 0-0 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and Jong Utrecht?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 45%, Jong Utrecht 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (FC Eindhoven) and 62% (Jong Utrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven have failed to score in 38% of games; Jong Utrecht in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Eindhoven vs Jong Utrecht Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Eindhoven and Jong Utrecht matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of FC Eindhoven's recent matches and 55% of Jong Utrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC Eindhoven and Jong Utrecht matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 62% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do FC Eindhoven and Jong Utrecht matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of FC Eindhoven's recent matches and 83% of Jong Utrecht's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jong Utrecht defy the odds to beat FC Eindhoven 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Utrecht beat FC Eindhoven 1-2 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 2.28 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.98 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Eindhoven fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Jong Utrecht outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.99 / defence 1.15 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.66 / defence 1.40, drawn from 64/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 66% | Draw 19% | Jong Utrecht 14%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Jong Utrecht win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 55%, Jong Utrecht 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (62 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (62 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.65. Form was overturned, with Jong Utrecht winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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