FC Eindhoven 2-4 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jong AZ make the trip to Jan Louwers Stadion to face FC Eindhoven in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37. The match kicks off on Friday 2 May 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
FC Eindhoven (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Eindhoven's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Jan Louwers Stadion this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jong AZ's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D L W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Jong AZ away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for FC Eindhoven against 1.60 for Jong AZ. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Eindhoven have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Jong AZ in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours FC Eindhoven, who have won 3 of the last 6 meetings against Jong AZ — a 3D 0W return for the visitors.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2024, ended 3–2 with FC Eindhoven winning.
The historical record gives FC Eindhoven a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
FC Eindhoven half-time and goal-timing data (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Jong AZ half-time and goal-timing data (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 51% versus Jong AZ 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 55% | Jong AZ 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.32 xG and Jong AZ 2.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 0.836 / defence 1.381 | Jong AZ attack 1.314 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.670 / away 1.241. Jong AZ have an above-average attack strength of 1.314 — the away xG of 2.25 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 74 FC Eindhoven games / 74 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 21% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 58%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 4.76 | Draw 4.76 | Jong AZ 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Jong AZ (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.32 / 2.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong AZ are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.57 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 70% | Jong AZ 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 2 May 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 21% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 66% | xG FC Eindhoven 1.32 / Jong AZ 2.25 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 0.836 / def 1.381 | Jong AZ attack 1.314 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.670 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
2.25
Jong AZ xG
66%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 2 May 2025 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ?
FC Eindhoven 2 - 4 Jong AZ.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ part of?
FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 21% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 58% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both FC Eindhoven and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Jong AZ?
Record (6 meetings): FC Eindhoven 3W | Draws 3 | Jong AZ 0W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and Jong AZ in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Eindhoven's attack rating (0.84) and Jong AZ's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jong AZ's attack (1.31x) against FC Eindhoven's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 2.25.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
21%
4.76
21%
4.72
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
0 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
3.57
2.25
Jong AZ xG
4.76
21%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
11%
9.50
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
2%
45.18
15%
6.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 6.3 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.4 | 9.4 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 2.25 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Eindhoven's recent record stands at 22W 25D 27L from 74 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-W in the last five.
Jong AZ, meanwhile, have gone 28W 18D 28L across 74 games — 1.38 PPG, with D-D-L-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for FC Eindhoven against 1.38 for Jong AZ. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC Eindhoven have managed 9W 13D 15L from 37 games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong AZ's away record stands at 11W 10D 16L across 37 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.69 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ in 68%.
Last 74 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Current Season
Jong AZ
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 22W 25D 27L in their last 74 games (1.23 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 28W 18D 28L in their last 74 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or Jong AZ away?
Jong AZ's away record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 1.08 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 10 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: FC Eindhoven have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Eindhoven have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FC Eindhoven
3
Draws
1
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 6, Jong AZ have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2026, when Jong AZ 0-1 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and Jong AZ?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 49%, Jong AZ 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for FC Eindhoven and 68% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 49% of FC Eindhoven's games and 70% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 68% of Jong AZ's.
Do FC Eindhoven and Jong AZ tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong AZ cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over FC Eindhoven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat FC Eindhoven 2-4 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 37, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.32 xG and Jong AZ 2.25 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Jong AZ outscored their 2.25 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.84 / defence 1.38 against Jong AZ attack 1.31 / defence 0.94, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 21% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 58%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 55%, Jong AZ 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Jong AZ's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.23 PPG, Jong AZ 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.