FC Eindhoven 1-3 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Volendam at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Eindhoven vs FC Volendam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Eindhoven and FC Volendam meet at Jan Louwers Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Friday 10 January 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
FC Eindhoven's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Eindhoven's home record at Jan Louwers Stadion: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jan Louwers Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FC Volendam (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
FC Volendam arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: FC Eindhoven 0W, FC Volendam 1W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2024, ended 1–4 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
FC Eindhoven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
FC Volendam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 50% versus FC Volendam 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 54% | FC Volendam 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 0.95 xG and FC Volendam 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 0.645 / defence 1.125 | FC Volendam attack 1.116 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.569 / away 1.404. FC Eindhoven's attack strength of 0.645 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 58 FC Eindhoven games / 20 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 19% | Draw 27% | FC Volendam 55%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 5.26 | Draw 3.70 | FC Volendam 1.82. The model has a clear lean to FC Volendam (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Volendam as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 20% | FC Volendam 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 10 Jan 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 19% | Draw 27% | FC Volendam 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG FC Eindhoven 0.95 / FC Volendam 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 0.645 / def 1.125 | FC Volendam attack 1.116 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.569 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.76
FC Volendam xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs FC Volendam kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs FC Volendam kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 January 2025 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs FC Volendam?
FC Eindhoven 1 - 3 FC Volendam.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs FC Volendam part of?
FC Eindhoven vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 19% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 55% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both FC Eindhoven and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and FC Volendam?
Record (3 meetings): FC Eindhoven 0W | Draws 2 | FC Volendam 1W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and FC Volendam in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. FC Volendam (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC Eindhoven's attacking strength (0.65x league average) is weighed against FC Volendam's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. Flip it around — FC Volendam's attack (1.12x) against FC Eindhoven's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
These ratings are built from 58/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.3%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
19%
5.38
27%
3.75
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
2.72
1.76
FC Volendam xG
5.38
19%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
17%
5.83
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
3%
31.38
21%
4.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 11.6 | 10.3 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.76 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Eindhoven come into this having played 54 games, going 14W 19D 21L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Volendam sit at 1.09 PPG from 54 outings (16W 11D 27L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for FC Eindhoven against 1.09 for FC Volendam. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FC Eindhoven's home form reads 5W 10D 11L across 26 games on their own ground, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Volendam have taken 0.92 points per game from 26 outings (5W 9D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.44 scored and 2.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 65%.
Last 54 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 14W 19D 21L in their last 54 games (1.13 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 16W 11D 27L in their last 54 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or FC Volendam away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (0.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 0.96 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Volendam have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Volendam won 4-1 on 25 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Eindhoven have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
FC Eindhoven
2
Draws
2
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and FC Volendam?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 0, FC Volendam have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2025, when FC Eindhoven 1-3 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 42%, FC Volendam 81% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (FC Eindhoven) and 69% (FC Volendam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of FC Eindhoven's games and 81% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Eindhoven vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 69% of FC Volendam's.
Do FC Eindhoven and FC Volendam tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Volendam cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC Eindhoven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat FC Eindhoven 1-3 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 0.95 xG and FC Volendam 1.76 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC Volendam outscored their 1.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.65 / defence 1.12 against FC Volendam attack 1.12 / defence 0.94, drawn from 58/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 19% | Draw 27% | FC Volendam 55%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 54%, FC Volendam 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
FC Volendam's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.13 PPG, FC Volendam 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Volendam win broke the near-deadlock. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Volendam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.