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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap finished level at 2-2 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.66 xG and De Graafschap 1.63 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 1.16 / defence 0.94 against De Graafschap attack 1.15 / defence 0.94, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 39% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 38%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 62%, De Graafschap 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Eindhoven's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

De Graafschap's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.32 PPG, De Graafschap 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights