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Shock result as FC Eindhoven defy the odds to beat De Graafschap 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Eindhoven beat De Graafschap 1-0 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.55 xG and De Graafschap 1.68 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. De Graafschap landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.96 / defence 1.34 against De Graafschap attack 0.98 / defence 0.98, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 35% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 41%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual FC Eindhoven win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 56%, De Graafschap 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Eindhoven's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

De Graafschap's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with FC Eindhoven winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights