FC Eindhoven 1-0 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours De Graafschap (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC Eindhoven face De Graafschap.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees De Graafschap travel to Jan Louwers Stadion to take on FC Eindhoven. The game is scheduled for Friday 11 April 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC Eindhoven have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Eindhoven's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Jan Louwers Stadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, De Graafschap have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. De Graafschap are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for FC Eindhoven, 4 for De Graafschap and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2024, ended 0–2 with De Graafschap winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
FC Eindhoven in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 54% versus De Graafschap 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 56% | De Graafschap 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.55 xG and De Graafschap 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 0.960 / defence 1.338 | De Graafschap attack 0.979 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.282. Data: 71 FC Eindhoven games / 71 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 35% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 41%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 2.86 | Draw 4.17 | De Graafschap 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 80% | De Graafschap 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 11 Apr 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 35% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG FC Eindhoven 1.55 / De Graafschap 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 0.960 / def 1.338 | De Graafschap attack 0.979 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.68
De Graafschap xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 11 April 2025 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap?
FC Eindhoven 1 - 0 De Graafschap.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap part of?
FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 35% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap?
Record (7 meetings): FC Eindhoven 2W | Draws 1 | De Graafschap 4W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. De Graafschap (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Eindhoven's attack rating (0.96) and De Graafschap's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus FC Eindhoven's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
35%
2.85
24%
4.10
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
3.23
1.68
De Graafschap xG
2.85
35%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
19%
5.37
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
7%
15.29
9%
11.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.3 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.68 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Eindhoven's recent record stands at 20W 25D 26L from 71 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-D in the last five.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 34W 14D 23L across 71 games — 1.63 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours De Graafschap by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Eindhoven heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Eindhoven have managed 8W 13D 14L from 35 games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 11W 9D 15L across 35 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.63 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of De Graafschap's season.
The Goals Picture
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.79 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap in 62%.
Last 71 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Current Season
De Graafschap
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 20W 25D 26L in their last 71 games (1.20 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 34W 14D 23L in their last 71 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 1.06 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Feb 2023, when De Graafschap won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Eindhoven's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Eindhoven
2
Draws
5
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 3, De Graafschap have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when FC Eindhoven 2-2 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 51%, De Graafschap 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for FC Eindhoven and 66% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 51% of FC Eindhoven's games and 66% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 66% of De Graafschap's.
Do FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Eindhoven defy the odds to beat De Graafschap 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat De Graafschap 1-0 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.55 xG and De Graafschap 1.68 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. De Graafschap landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.96 / defence 1.34 against De Graafschap attack 0.98 / defence 0.98, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 35% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 41%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual FC Eindhoven win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 56%, De Graafschap 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
De Graafschap's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with FC Eindhoven winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.