FC Eindhoven 0-3 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Eindhoven at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Eindhoven vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cambuur make the trip to Jan Louwers Stadion to face FC Eindhoven in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Friday 29 March 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Eindhoven have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Eindhoven have posted 2W 4D 4L at Jan Louwers Stadion — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Cambuur's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Cambuur have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for FC Eindhoven against 0.80 for Cambuur. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for FC Eindhoven, 0 for Cambuur and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC Eindhoven — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Cambuur — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 55% versus Cambuur 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 51% | Cambuur 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.46 xG and Cambuur 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 0.770 / defence 1.071 | Cambuur attack 0.993 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.623 / away 1.306. FC Eindhoven's attack strength of 0.770 is below the league average — the 1.46 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 69 FC Eindhoven games / 31 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 39% | Draw 26% | Cambuur 35%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Cambuur 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Eindhoven are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 40% | Cambuur 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 29 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 39% | Draw 26% | Cambuur 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG FC Eindhoven 1.46 / Cambuur 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 0.770 / def 1.071 | Cambuur attack 0.993 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.623 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Cambuur xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs Cambuur kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 29 March 2024 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs Cambuur?
FC Eindhoven 0 - 3 Cambuur.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs Cambuur part of?
FC Eindhoven vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 39% chance of winning, Cambuur a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both FC Eindhoven and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Cambuur?
Record (1 meetings): FC Eindhoven 0W | Draws 1 | Cambuur 0W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and Cambuur in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Cambuur (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Eindhoven's attack rating (0.77) and Cambuur's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cambuur's attack (0.99x) against FC Eindhoven's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 69/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
39%
2.59
26%
3.81
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
2.85
1.39
Cambuur xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
10%
10.39
8%
12.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.7 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.39 for Cambuur, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 65 outings, FC Eindhoven have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 20W 23D 22L record — D-D-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Cambuur's form line: 17W 10D 38L from 65 games, 0.94 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for FC Eindhoven against 0.94 for Cambuur. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Eindhoven have posted 1.38 PPG from 32 outings (11W 11D 10L).
On the road, Cambuur have gone 8W 6D 18L from 32 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.37 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Current Season
Cambuur
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and Cambuur in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 20W 23D 22L in their last 65 games (1.28 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 17W 10D 38L in their last 65 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or Cambuur away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 1.38 PPG; Cambuur away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 24 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cambuur won 0-3 on 29 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Eindhoven have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cambuur — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
FC Eindhoven
2
Draws
3
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Cambuur?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 1, Cambuur have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2026, when Cambuur 2-1 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and Cambuur?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 53%, Cambuur 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (FC Eindhoven) and 62% (Cambuur).
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven have failed to score in 28% of games; Cambuur in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play Cambuur?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of FC Eindhoven's games and 62% of Cambuur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Eindhoven vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of FC Eindhoven's recent games and 62% of Cambuur's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Eindhoven and Cambuur tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cambuur run riot with a 0-3 hammering of FC Eindhoven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat FC Eindhoven 0-3 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.46 xG and Cambuur 1.39 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. FC Eindhoven fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Cambuur outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.77 / defence 1.07 against Cambuur attack 0.99 / defence 1.17, drawn from 69/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 39% | Draw 26% | Cambuur 35%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Cambuur win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 51%, Cambuur 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cambuur's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.28 PPG, Cambuur 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambuur win broke the near-deadlock. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.