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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Eindhoven edge out Almere City FC 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Eindhoven beat Almere City FC 3-2 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 2.28 xG and Almere City FC 1.67 xG, a combined 3.96. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 1.12 / defence 1.06 against Almere City FC attack 1.07 / defence 1.21, drawn from 64/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 51% | Draw 21% | Almere City FC 28%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 60%, Almere City FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Eindhoven's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Almere City FC's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.25 PPG, Almere City FC 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Eindhoven win broke the near-deadlock. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights