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Vitesse cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Excelsior.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vitesse beat Excelsior 1-3 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 2.29 xG and Vitesse 0.86 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Excelsior fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Vitesse outscored their 0.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.94 / defence 0.68 against Vitesse attack 0.99 / defence 1.48, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Excelsior 69% | Draw 19% | Vitesse 12%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a Vitesse win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 67%, Vitesse 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Excelsior's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Vitesse's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Excelsior arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.75. Form was overturned, with Vitesse winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vitesse (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.61 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights