🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Excelsior and Roda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 28, as Excelsior and Roda drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.45 xG and Roda 1.19 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.84 / defence 0.87 against Roda attack 1.06 / defence 1.05, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Excelsior 43% | Draw 27% | Roda 30%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 69%, Roda 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Excelsior's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Roda's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Excelsior 1.34 PPG, Roda 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights