Excelsior vs FC Volendam – Match Report

🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Excelsior's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 19, as Excelsior and FC Volendam drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.98 xG and FC Volendam 1.52 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Excelsior fell 2.0 short of their projected output. FC Volendam landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 1.21 / defence 0.86 against FC Volendam attack 1.26 / defence 1.06, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Excelsior 47% | Draw 24% | FC Volendam 28%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 73%, FC Volendam 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Excelsior's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Volendam's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Excelsior 1.35 PPG, FC Volendam 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.24 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights