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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Excelsior cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC OSS.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Excelsior beat FC OSS 2-0 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.50 xG and FC OSS 0.76 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.96 / defence 0.85 against FC OSS attack 0.70 / defence 0.95, drawn from 33/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Excelsior 54% | Draw 28% | FC OSS 18%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 70%, FC OSS 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Excelsior's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

FC OSS's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Excelsior arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.94. That form edge translated into the three points. Excelsior (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights