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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Excelsior cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Emmen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Excelsior beat Emmen 2-0 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.34 xG and Emmen 1.12 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Emmen landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.95 / defence 0.83 against Emmen attack 1.06 / defence 0.84, drawn from 35/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Excelsior 41% | Draw 29% | Emmen 30%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 70%, Emmen 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Excelsior's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Emmen's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Excelsior 1.45 PPG, Emmen 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Excelsior win broke the near-deadlock. Excelsior (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights