🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Excelsior edge out Dordrecht 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Excelsior beat Dordrecht 1-0 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.66 xG and Dordrecht 1.16 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dordrecht landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 1.05 / defence 0.79 against Dordrecht attack 1.04 / defence 1.01, drawn from 20/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Excelsior 47% | Draw 28% | Dordrecht 25%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 72%, Dordrecht 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Excelsior's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Dordrecht's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Excelsior winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights