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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Excelsior edge out ADO Den Haag 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Excelsior beat ADO Den Haag 1-0 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.60 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.15 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. ADO Den Haag landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.99 / defence 0.74 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.19 / defence 0.99, drawn from 22/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Excelsior 47% | Draw 26% | ADO Den Haag 27%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 70%, ADO Den Haag 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Excelsior's trading profile (60 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (60 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Excelsior 1.33 PPG, ADO Den Haag 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Excelsior win broke the near-deadlock. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights