🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Excelsior at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Van Donge & De Roo Stadion plays host to Excelsior versus ADO Den Haag in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 26 January 2025 at 11:15 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Excelsior have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Excelsior have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Excelsior are significantly better at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion than their overall form suggests.

ADO Den Haag's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, ADO Den Haag have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Excelsior, 1.90 for ADO Den Haag — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record favours Excelsior, who have won 4 of the last 7 meetings against ADO Den Haag — a 2D 1W return for the visitors.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.7 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2024, ended 5–0 with Excelsior winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Excelsior and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 4.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Data

Excelsior goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

ADO Den Haag goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Excelsior 60% and ADO Den Haag 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Excelsior 70% | ADO Den Haag 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.60 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.991 / defence 0.742 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.185 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.634 / away 1.312. Excelsior's defence rating of 0.742 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 22 Excelsior games / 59 ADO Den Haag games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Excelsior 47% | Draw 26% | ADO Den Haag 27%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | ADO Den Haag 3.70. Excelsior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Excelsior as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Excelsior if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior 40% | ADO Den Haag 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights